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Original Article

Statistical estimation of the number of breast cancer patients with disabilities resulting from surgery

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Abstract

Background

The prolongation of the post-operative life of cancer patients brings new medical demands. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the total number of women patients with breast cancer who will have disability resulting from surgical treatment from 2000 to 2020 in Japan.

Methods

The estimation was carried out using four indices: the number of cases of women diagnosed with breast cancer, the proportion of surgical operations, the frequency of disability from surgical treatment, and the crude survival rate of the patient group.

The crude survival rates of surgically-treated breast cancer patients were estimated by the Weibull model. The frequencies of iatrogenic disabilities were calculated from several reports of complaints of pain in the chest wall or axilla and lymphedema of the arm, and 95% confidence intervals were calculated by the Monte Carlo simulation.

Results and Discussion

The number of women patients with disability from breast cancer treatment from 2000 to 2020 was estimated to be 42,016 (95% CI: 41,236, 42,796) people in 2000 and 72,514 (95% CI: 71,196, 73,832) people in 2020 for pain in the chest wall or axilla, and 22,486 (95% CI: 22,148, 22,823) people in 2000 and 38,692 (95% CI: 38,094, 39,290) people in 2020 for lymphedema of the arm. Treatment supports required for the disability are medication and social support. Cancer patients with disability after treatment need long-term support in their daily life.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Course of Health Science, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University, 1-7, Yamadaoka, 565-0871, Suita City, Osaka, Japan

    Yuko Kitamura, Yuko Ohno, Satoko Kasahara & Hiromi Sugiyama

  2. Faculty of Health Sciences, Tokyo Metropolitan University of Health Sciences, Japan

    Kanaka Murata

  3. Department of Cancer Control and Statistics, Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases, Japan

    Akira Oshima, Hideaki Tsukuma & Wakiko Ajiki

  4. Department of Policy Sciences, National Institute of Public Health, Japan

    Toshihiko Hasegawa

Authors
  1. Yuko Kitamura
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  2. Yuko Ohno
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  3. Satoko Kasahara
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  4. Kanaka Murata
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  5. Hiromi Sugiyama
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  6. Akira Oshima
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  7. Hideaki Tsukuma
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  8. Wakiko Ajiki
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  9. Toshihiko Hasegawa
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yuko Kitamura.

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Cite this article

Kitamura, Y., Ohno, Y., Kasahara, S. et al. Original Article. Breast Cancer 12, 130–134 (2005). https://doi.org/10.2325/jbcs.12.130

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.2325/jbcs.12.130

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