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Natural History of Gastric Cancer: Observational Study of Gastric Cancer Patients Not Treated During Follow-Up

  • Gastrointestinal Oncology
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Annals of Surgical Oncology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Background

Understanding the natural progression of untreated gastric cancer is critical for determining the disease prognosis as well as treatment options and timing. The aim of this study is to analyze the natural history of gastric cancer.

Patients and Methods

We included patients with gastric cancer who had not received any treatment and were staged using endoscopy/endoscopic ultrasonography and computed tomography on at least two follow-up visits during intervals of nontreatment. Tumor volumes were also measured in addition to the staging. Survival of each stage at diagnosis was also analyzed.

Results

A total of 101 patients were included. The mean follow-up period was 35.1 ± 34.4 months. The gastric cancer doubling time was 11.8 months for T1 and 6.2 months for T4. The progression time from early gastric cancer to advanced gastric cancer was 34 months. It decreased as the stages advanced: from 34 months between tumor-nodes-metastasis stage I and II to 1.8 months between stage III and IV. No variable was identified as a risk factor for cancer progression. The 5-year survival rates of untreated patients were 46.2% in stage I and 0% in stage II, stage III, and stage IV.

Conclusions

The progression and doubling times of gastric cancer shorten as the stages advance. Objective data reported in this study can be a critical factor in determining treatment timing and screening interval.

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Acknowledgement

Statistical analysis was performed by the Medical Research Collaborating Center of SNUH.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Seung-Young Oh and Jeong-Hwan Lee contributed equally and are considered joint first authors.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea

    Seung-Young Oh MD, MS, Jeong-Hwan Lee MD, Hyuk-Joon Lee MD, PhD, Tae Han Kim MD, PhD, Yeon-Ju Huh MD, MS, Yun-Suhk Suh MD, PhD, Seong-Ho Kong MD, PhD & Han-Kwang Yang MD, PhD

  2. Critical Care Center, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Korea

    Seung-Young Oh MD, MS

  3. Cancer Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea

    Hyuk-Joon Lee MD, PhD & Han-Kwang Yang MD, PhD

  4. Department of Surgery, Gyeongsang National University College of Medicine, Gyeongsang National University Changwon Hospital, Changwon, Korea

    Tae Han Kim MD, PhD

  5. Departmemt of Surgery, Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital, Seoul, Korea

    Yeon-Ju Huh MD, MS

  6. Department of Surgery, Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, Seoul, Korea

    Hye-Seong Ahn MD, PhD

  7. Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea

    Ga Hee Kim MD, MS

  8. Department of Gastroenterology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Asan Digestive Disease Research Institute, Seoul, Korea

    Ga Hee Kim MD, MS

  9. Department of Radiology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea

    Su Joa Ahn MD, MS & Se Hyung Kim MD, PhD

  10. Medical Research Collaborating Center, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea

    Yunhee Choi PhD

Authors
  1. Seung-Young Oh MD, MS
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  2. Jeong-Hwan Lee MD
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  3. Hyuk-Joon Lee MD, PhD
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  6. Hye-Seong Ahn MD, PhD
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  7. Yun-Suhk Suh MD, PhD
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  10. Su Joa Ahn MD, MS
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  13. Han-Kwang Yang MD, PhD
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hyuk-Joon Lee MD, PhD.

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Oh, SY., Lee, JH., Lee, HJ. et al. Natural History of Gastric Cancer: Observational Study of Gastric Cancer Patients Not Treated During Follow-Up. Ann Surg Oncol 26, 2905–2911 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1245/s10434-019-07455-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1245/s10434-019-07455-z

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