Effects of meteorological conditions and air pollution on COVID-19 transmission: Evidence from 219 Chinese cities

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140244Get rights and content

Highlights

  • There exists a nonlinear dose-response relationship between temperature and COVID-19 transmission

  • Air pollution has exerted a positive impact on the transmission of and infection by COVID-19.

  • In northern China the negative effects of rising temperature on COVID-19 were counteracted by aggravated air pollution.

  • In southern cities, the rising temperature restrained the facilitating effects of air pollution on COVID-19.

Abstract

The spatial distribution of the COVID-19 infection in China cannot be explained solely by geographical distance and regulatory stringency. In this research we investigate how meteorological conditions and air pollution, as concurring factors, impact COVID-19 transmission, using data on new confirmed cases from 219 prefecture cities from January 24 to February 29, 2020. Results revealed a kind of nonlinear dose-response relationship between temperature and coronavirus transmission. We also found that air pollution indicators are positively correlated with new confirmed cases, and the coronavirus further spreads by 5–7% as the AQI increases by 10 units. Further analysis based on regional divisions revealed that in northern China the negative effects of rising temperature on COVID-19 is counteracted by aggravated air pollution. In the southern cities, the ambient temperature and air pollution have a negative interactive effect on COVID-19 transmission, implying that rising temperature restrains the facilitating effects of air pollution and that they jointly lead to a decrease in new confirmed cases. These results provide implications for the control and prevention of this disease and for the anticipation of another possible pandemic.

Keywords

COVID-19
Ambient temperature
Relative humidity
Wind speed
Air pollution
China

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