Risk of another basal cell carcinoma developing after treatment of a basal cell carcinoma

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Background: There is an increased risk of new basal cell carcinomas (BCCs) developing in a person who has had a BCC.

Objective: This study attempts to define the magnitude of this increased risk.

Methods: The charts of 260 white patients with a histologically proven BCC were reviewed for the occurrence of new BCCs. The cumulative 5-year incidence (modified life-table method) for new BCCs developing in these patients was compared with the 5-year incidence in the general white population of the United States.

Results: Of the 260 patients, new BCCs developed in 137 within an average of 38.3 months, a 5-year cumulative rate of one or more new BCCs of 45.2%. The yearly risk for new BCCs developing in the study population remained high during the 5-year interval. In the general white population of the United States, the maximal 5-year incidence was calculated to be 5% (p < 0.005, chi-square test).

Conclusion: Patients with a history of BCC require life-long follow-up because of the high probability of new BCCs developing.

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Supported by the Ronald O. Perelman Department of Dermatology, New York University (NYU) School of Medicine; the Niarchos Fund of the Skin Cancer Foundation; the American Cancer Society, New York City Division (Professional Education Grant); the NYU Kaplan Cancer Center (Core Support Grant No. P30 CA-16087).